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Gold is the precious metal without peer. No other can match its unique combination of rarity, beauty, physical properties, utility, and value. These qualities have given gold its 6000-year starring role in human history.

From April 2001 to April 2004, the requisite three-year minimum necessary to catapult gold’s current bull market into the elite ranks of seculardom, gold has soared over 66% higher. Since we are already three-and-a-half years into gold’s present bull, we have to start thinking in secular terms.
Only then can we begin to understand what wonders might lay ahead for gold investors.


While private gold investors tend to fear central banks due to their ominous urban-legend status, I don’t believe central banks have any hope of controlling gold action over longer periods of time. It is believed that about 150,000 metric tonnes of gold have been painstakingly chiseled out of the bowels of the Earth during all of world history, and only about 20%, or 30,000 tonnes, is controlled by various central banks today. While 20% is certainly not trivial, it is the private investors that control the other 80% that really hold gold’s destiny in their hands.

Since newly mined gold can only grow total world supplies by a couple percent a year at best, and central banks only control 20% of the above-ground gold and tend to buy and sell at exactly the wrong times lengthening secular trends, the real force to be reckoned with in the gold world is private investors. It is to these private investors, people around the world like you and I, that we must look to understand secular gold bulls.

The key to a secular gold bull is the demand or supply that private investors generate worldwide as they buy or sell gold. It isn’t mining supplies, it’s not central banks, but it is the collective gold transactions of hundreds of millions or even billions of individual investors worldwide buying and selling gold that ultimately sets its price and determines its fortunes.

But with gold, and indeed most other investments, the demand curve is far from normal. As all contrarians know, in the investment world the higher the price of an investment climbs the greater demand becomes! It is all backwards. While virtually no one wanted anything to do with gold near $250 a few years ago, once gold soars to $2500 everyone will want a piece of it. In the financial world higher prices don’t retard demand, instead they actually breed demand!

The higher the price of gold climbs, the more potential investors will become aware of its impressive returns. As they buy in over time, their marginal investment demand will drive gold even higher, putting it on the radar of even more investors worldwide. This investor demand creates a wonderful virtuous circle, with higher gold prices leading to more interest and higher demand which in turn leads back to higher gold prices and feeds the cycle. There is no better advertisement for a particular investment than rising prices, as most investors are not contrarians so they will only chase existing well-established trends.

And remember that private investors collectively control 80% of the world’s gold, so if demand is growing in this realm it is almost irrelevant what the mines can pull or what nefarious machinations the central banks happen to be up to! The whole secular gold game unfolds in terms of private investor demand for gold, as we are collectively the dominating force in the gold market.

We believe the key to understanding this parabolic growth shape  in gold evolution is this:
The higher an investment price gets, the higher demand grows and a positive feedback loop is created.

Gold is ultimately money - and in first stages  it trades like being another - currency.  For instance e-Gold.
One of the primary reasons  is that the main reason gold rises initially is due to a devaluation of the dominant currency in which it is priced, obviously the US dollar today. As the US dollar bear has festered in recent years, and as the dollar eroded in the early 1970s, gold is a direct beneficiary of the dollar’s losses. As the dollar grinds lower, the gold/dollar exchange rate rises.

The more global capital that is poured into gold, the faster its price rises tracking the accelerating parabolic upslope. And of course the faster gold’s price rises the more new capital it attracts. This virtuous circle on a global scale is what fuels the strong gains of Stage Two, which provocatively utterly dwarf Stage One. While gold went from $257 to $427, or 66% higher in Stage One so far, it should trade considerably above $1000 before Stage Two ends, or another 134% higher from here!

After five or so years of Stage Two gains, gold has a chance at going ballistic in Stage Three. Stage Three is only ignited if the general public around the world starts growing enamored with gold investing. If you thought the dot-com mania was crazy, wait until you see a global gold rush.
All of us humans have an innate lust for gold burning somewhere in our hearts and there is no rush like a gold rush! Gold rushes define speculative manias!

Not surprisingly the greatest gains of all will be found in Stage Three being in front of us. Extrapolating today’s bull-market data on a 1970s-style gold parabola, gold could easily shoot from $1000 to over $3500 if the public enters and ignites a popular speculative mania. This massive 250% gain in Stage Three alone is roughly twice as great as Stage Two’s 134% and four times as great as Stage One’s 66%!

Even better, increasing empirical evidence suggests Stage Two is near so the upslope of this secular gold bull is due to accelerate significantly in the years ahead.

*** Is your capital positioned and ready to ride this accelerating secular gold bull?
Marius Wlassak

Die Grafik   If you are interested in this key Stage One to Stage Two transition, please consider  investing now!

Die Grafik
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Die Grafik
Today, gold is more sought after and used more widely than ever. Gold is critical to:

  • world trade as a solid guarantee to paper currencies.
  • high tech, aerospace, and other industries that demand gold's unmatched physical properties.
  • investors as a safe haven investment vehicle in uncertain economic times.
  • lovers of beautiful jewellery and works of art.
  • those who understand its practical and symbolic value as a store of enduring wealth.


These are the reasons why people buy and enjoy gold, hold gold, and invest in gold and gold equities.
They are the answer to the question, Why Gold?

Die Grafik
Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at mwtagency@gmail.com.

Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally in a short time period.  * I will read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!

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 Die Grafik

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Posted on Saturday, March 12, 2005 at 07:27PM by Registered CommenterMarius Wlassak Global Business Connection | Comments3 Comments | References1 Reference